Iraq Looking Good, Part 1: Winning By A Dip Stick

In the most in-depth picture of the trend, the Pew report says that about half the public (48%) now says the Iraq war effort is going either very well or fairly well. That compares to a more than 2-1 majority who said it was going badly a year ago. Nearly half (47%) say the U.S. should keep its troops in Iraq until the situation there has stabilized -- roughly the same as those (49%) who favor bringing troops home as soon as possible. A year ago, 53% favored rapid withdrawal versus 42% who favored keeping the troops in Iraq.  -- WSJ

“It has a great deal more to do with the economy than with ideology,” said one senior American military official, who said that studies of detainees in American custody found that about three-quarters were not committed to the jihadist ideology. “The vast majority have nothing to do with the caliphate and the central ideology of Al Qaeda.” -- NYT

Why is the perception of the Iraq occupation improving?  It's because both parties are measuring progress in terms of reduced incidents -- and images -- of violence.

If, however, the images that are circulating detail political, economic or military futility, these can be taken for progress, too ... if nobody knows how to read them.

The shot above -- and the gallery it comes from -- is actually offered in an ironic vein.  What we think we see is one more example of Iraq functioning normally, under the helpful hand of Uncle Sam.  Specifically, American troops are checking the level of fuel in this tanker truck against the measure in the driver's records.

What we discover from the article, however, is that whether or not skimming was prevented here, a third and maybe much more of the oil coming from the Baji refinery in Northern Iraq -- an instillation that American troops are scrupulously guarding -- is ending up on the black market, and bankrolling the insurgency.

The fact there is no way to see what is happening at either end of the tanker sends a message about an overall fragmentary picture.

Sentiment on Iraq Is Changing (Wall Street Journal)
image from: Iraq Insurgency Runs on Stolen Oil Profits (NYT)
The Baiji Refinery in Iraq (NYT slide show)

(image: Eros Hoagland for The New York Times.  Baiji, Iraq.  nytimes.com)

Comments

[black dog barking]

The photo captures a seemingly rigorous and accurate process carried out under armed supervision. Apparently a futile process if a third or more of the scrupulously measured hydrocarbon ends up being diverted to the insurgency. What we have is a graphic illustration of a failed process. We may know where the resources are at the moment of the photo but we've no real idea where these resources are headed.

The cited Pew report is a parallel exercise in scrupulous failure. I've no doubt that the report is accurately researched and reported but, like the photo above, the handy snapshot measurement, no matter how accurate, is of little real consequence. Here's another way to summarize this or any other poll of the American public on the subject of Iraq — N% of a group of people that are largely uninformed or ill-informed about the topic under consideration believe Y.

This poll is being offered by an news organization charged with informing the American public and meets two benchmarks. 1) It appears to give accurate useful information, thereby appearing to reduce the ranks of both the uninformed and ill-informed. 2) If offers no insight whatsoever into what is really happening in Iraq.

Sound & fury.

[Gasho]

If Americans are being duped into thinking that things are that much better there, then it goes to show how little the population as a whole is capable of critical thought. Group think can lead to bad decisions, but when the group is 300 Million people, it leads to kindergarden level analysis, apparently.

This shot is fascinating. There's something biblical about the silhouette of these 3 figures against the sky, standing on an unearthly mount - a tanker full of explosive fuel. The 3 figures each have a role - soldier, commoner, and the holy man.* The soldier has his machine gun, that, if fired could ignite the tanker and kill everyone in the scene, including the witnesses and the viewer - us. The man with the dipstick becomes all important in this tragic epoch of history- measuring the last of the precious black blood of the Earth at gunpoint. Perhaps the robed figure is present to record this chapter into the scripture.

*I see that 2 are probably soldiers and the other is the driver, but if this was reproduced in stained glass, it might read differently.